In order to create a robust and profitable trading strategy, one has to understand many aspects. The trader must first know everything there is to know about the market and the instrument he is trading. When trading forex, the trader must understand the following:
- Different factors that make the forex market different from other markets, such as trading times, leverage, liquidity, etc.
- Political and economic situations ongoing in the countries which currencies are being traded.
After the trader understands the market he is trading, he needs to create his trading strategy. For this, the trader must understand many factors that make up the strategy. He needs to understand and decide the following:
- Everything there is to know about money and risk management, factors such as amount of capital, maximum drawdown, desired profit, setup costs, and expectancy.
- All the system components, such as position sizing, profit and stop loss amounts, and desired trading time.
Once the trader has decided the important parameters of the strategy to make it suit his personality, he must get into the technical and analytical part of the trading system. Here, the trader must decide which mathematical or statistical approach he will use to determine when to enter and exit trades or if he wants to use only news releases and government actions in order to decide when to trade.
- If the trader decides to use a technical approach, he must understand the different technical indicators that could help him identify when it is time to enter the market or when he should exit his trade. Some of these indicators are simple and exponential moving averages, DMI, MACD, Parabolic SAR, and others. The trader should understand the mathematical explanation and the use each of these indicators have in order to develop a robust strategy. These indicators can be found by the trader in trading platforms or in some internet charts.
- If the trader decides to base his trading actions in news releases and government actions, he must understand the different releases that could suddenly change the markets trend and the way to analyze them to use them to his advantage. Some releases are unemployment rates, GDP value, interest rates, and others. Another aspect that has to be chosen, is if the trading is going to be done using a computer based platform or with a broker or brokerage company. The trader must understand the different costs each of the options have, as the advantages one could have over the other.
By using a broker, the trader could minimize his implementation cost, but having to tell the broker every time to get into the trade or exit could make the trader lose some of the profit that could have been done by entering the market right away. Deciding to use a platform means having a membership cost which is added to the implementation costs, but the live charts and market activity could give the trader an edge over others.
If the trader decides to use a platform, he also needs to understand the different features offered by it, as the different elements needed to use it effectively. In order for the trader to create, modify or understand the built-in indicators and strategies, he must understand and know how to use the programming code used by the platform.
Another useful aspect the trader could use for his advantage is optimization. The trader must understand how to optimize his strategy in order to obtain the best set of parameters that will suit the trader’s desires. The trader must understand how the backtesting and the walk forward optimizations work. He must also know the different parameters these
optimizations take into account in order to generate the results.
Finally, the trader could run some tests to check how his strategy is working or how it could have worked if different scenarios occurred. These tests are the Monte Carlo Simulation and the Walk Forward Analysis, which give the trader a different analysis of the trades made. The trader must understand these tests to gain advantage and make final
changes to his trading system to make it a more robust one.